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Charts of the Week: Polymarket US Nips at Flagship Exchange’s Heels

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Polymarket US is catching up with its namesake.

Last week, the U.S. prediction market hosted $870m of trading volume, compared to $1.2b on the flagship offshore exchange. Six months ago, Polymarket US volume was ~$60m, a sliver of Polymarket’s overall business.

This is a surprising outcome, and not only because Polymarket US launched only in December and reportedly got off to a rocky start. It is a regulated centralized venue that requires KYC, whereas the original, onchain version of Polymarket is global, permissionless, and six years old (a lifetime in crypto).

Polymarket US vs Polymarket global

You might expect a fledgling, gated exchange to lag far behind an established, open one. Then again, despite its advantages, the international Polymarket was overtaken last year by its U.S.-only archrival Kalshi, which has since pulled far ahead.

Kalshi capitalized on its regulated status by integrating with trading apps including Coinbase and Phantom, which could not have legally offered unregulated Polymarket bets to their U.S. users. Turns out, regulation is distribution.

Polymarket vs Kalshi

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