Chart of the Week: How Polymarket Priced Odds of Huang’s Exit
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Jensen Huang’s exit from Nvidia was a slow-building story before it became a fast one. As they say: gradually, then suddenly.
The New York Times first reported his close relationship with Megaspeed executive Alice Huang, an alleged Chinese spy, on Oct. 29. On Nov. 8, Huang admitted infidelity in a letter to employees and the company said the board had opened an investigation. At the time, Nvidia said he remained committed to continuing as CEO.
Nevertheless, observers began speculating (in the armchair sense) whether he was on his way out, and financial speculation followed as prediction markets spun up. Initially, they gave low odds for a Huang departure.
Then, on Nov. 11, the Times reported Huang had also had an affair with an Nvidia executive who reported to him. Within about two hours, Polymarket contracts on whether Huang would leave had repriced from ~17-30% to ~90%. About 12 hours later, Nvidia announced his ouster.
Data note: Prices are Polymarket CLOB price history (1-minute fidelity) for each contract’s YES token, with token IDs pulled from the Gamma API. Price history is a sampled series, not individual trades.
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