Bitcoin Logs Biggest Weekly Dollar Gain as It Chases 50-Week Moving Average
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BTC saw the single largest one-week gain by dollar amount in its entire history for the week that closed Sunday night, rising $14,775 between Sunday, Aug. 16 and Sunday Aug. 23. By percentage, last week’s BTCUSD weekly candle ranked 41st of 840 weeks in BTCUSD history at +23.5%. Since 2020, only three weeks had a larger percentage gain: March 19, 2023 (+27.7%), Jan. 3, 2021 (+25.9%), and Feb. 14, 2021 (+25.2%).
This week, BTCUSD has traded as high as $81,265 (on Tuesday) and appears to be facing some resistance as it tries to surpass the 50-week moving average (currently ~$81,795).
Last week also saw the largest bitcoin ETF inflows since October 2025’s all-time high, and August is on track to close as the biggest inflow month since October as well.
The rally came during a period of extremely low volatility, with both realized and implied volatility printing near all-time lows. A substantial catalyst was the return of the debasement trade sparked by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announced expansion of bond buybacks (on the long end), with both gold and BTC rallying after the Wednesday, Aug. 19, announcement.
President Trump also hosted crypto executives at the White House and delivered pro-crypto remarks, including calling on Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, and crypto executives held the first meeting of the CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee. Both events resulted in substantial positive regulatory headlines and may have contributed to last week’s positive performance.
Our take
While the launch from near the 200-week MA ($64k) to the $80k level was historic – the biggest weekly gain in BTC history in dollar terms – it was also aided by substantial short liquidations, gamma squeeze, and momentum chasing. With other risk assets (such as AI-related stocks) near all-time highs, and bitcoin trading more than 50% off its prior all-time high but also failing to make new lows, BTC was primed to receive inflows from allocators who correctly assessed that it looked “cheap.” Finally, the return of the debasement trade narrative, more from the signal in Bessent’s announcement than its substance, has been a major tailwind as well. Given the U.S. debt profile, the debasement narrative will likely remain highly relevant to investors, which could benefit long-term bitcoin bulls, even if interest in the debasement trade ebbs and flows on shorter time frames.
As discussed in a recent Galaxy client alert, in four of the five completed bear markets, once the 50-week moving average was first broken to the upside, the bear market bottom was definitively “in.” (The only exception is during the mini-bear market in between the April and November 2021 all-time highs, a period that most bitcoin analysts don’t even consider to be a “full bear market.”) Essentially, retaking the 50w MA has previously confirmed the end of a bear market. Right now, BTCUSD is knocking on the door of the 50-week MA, which will almost certainly drop from $81.8k to ~$81.1k at candle close on Sunday, Aug. 30 (as a week from September 2025 rolls off the average).
If bulls can push BTC to close a weekly candle above the 50w MA, history suggests the bear market may be over
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